Monthly Portfolio Review

📋 Monthly Portfolio Review Checklist

□ Step 1: Performance Analysis (15 min)
  □ Calculate total return
  □ Compare to benchmarks
  □ Review individual positions
  □ Identify winners and losers

□ Step 2: Allocation Review (10 min)
  □ Check current allocation
  □ Compare to targets
  □ Identify drift
  □ Note rebalancing needs

□ Step 3: Risk Assessment (10 min)
  □ Check sector concentration
  □ Review correlation
  □ Assess volatility
  □ Evaluate portfolio beta

□ Step 4: Holdings Analysis (15 min)
  □ Review thesis for each position
  □ Check for broken theses
  □ Identify trim/add opportunities
  □ Note upcoming events (earnings, etc.)

□ Step 5: Action Items (10 min)
  □ List trades to execute
  □ Set price targets for entries
  □ Update watchlist
  □ Plan next month

□ Step 6: Journal Entry (5 min)
  □ Document review findings
  □ Note lessons learned
  □ Set goals for next month

What's my portfolio performance this month?
Compare to SPY, QQQ, and my goals.

📊 Monthly Performance Report - November 2024

Your Portfolio:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Starting Value (Nov 1): $50,000
Ending Value (Nov 30): $52,450
Net Contributions: +$0
Total Return: +4.9% ($2,450)

Benchmark Comparison:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
SPY (S&P 500): +3.2%
QQQ (Nasdaq): +4.5%
DIA (Dow): +2.8%

Your Performance:
✓ Outperformed SPY by +1.7%
✓ Outperformed QQQ by +0.4%
✓ Outperformed DIA by +2.1%

Grade: A
You beat the market this month! ✓

Year-to-Date Performance:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Your Portfolio: +18.5%
SPY: +15.2%
QQQ: +16.8%

YTD Grade: A-
Solid outperformance year-to-date ✓

Best Performers This Month:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. NVDA: +12.5% (+$1,562)
2. MSFT: +6.8% (+$598)
3. AMD: +5.2% (+$172)

Worst Performers This Month:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. TSLA: -3.2% (-$134)
2. VOO: +2.8% (+$168) [Still positive!]
3. AAPL: +4.1% (+$623)

Portfolio Metrics:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Win Rate (positions up): 83% (5/6)
Average Winner: +7.7%
Average Loser: -3.2%
Risk/Reward: 2.4:1 (excellent)

Volatility:
This month: 1.8% daily moves (avg)
Last month: 1.5% daily moves
Trend: Slightly more volatile

Sharpe Ratio:
Monthly: 2.1 (excellent)
YTD: 1.4 (good)

Analysis:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

What went right:
✓ Tech sector momentum (NVDA, MSFT, AMD up)
✓ Held winners through volatility
✓ Small positions in laggards minimized damage
✓ Diversification working (VOO buffering)

What went wrong:
⚠️ TSLA position down (but small 8% position)
⚠️ Missed some sector rotation opportunities
⚠️ Could've trimmed NVDA earlier (now very large)

Key Takeaway:
Strong month driven by tech. Be mindful of
concentration risk in NVDA (now 23.8% of portfolio).

November 2024 Review
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Returns:
- Month: +4.9%
- YTD: +18.5%
- Annualized: +18.5% (on track for goal of 15%)

Contributions:
- Added this month: $0
- Total invested: $50,000
- Current value: $52,450

Goal Progress:
- Target: $100k by end of 2026
- Current: $52,450
- On track: Yes ✓ (need +14% annually)

Emotional State:
- Feeling: Confident but slightly nervous
  (NVDA position getting large)
- Mistakes: None this month
- Lessons: Let winners run, but watch concentration

Actions This Month:
- Trades: 0 (stayed disciplined, no changes)
- Research hours: 4 (weekend research)
- Learnings: Tech momentum continues

Show my current asset allocation and
compare it to my target allocation.

📊 Asset Allocation Analysis

Current Allocation (Actual):
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Stocks: 95.3% ($50,000)
- Tech: 75.6% ($39,670) ⚠️
- Consumer Disc: 8.0% ($4,200)
- Broad Market: 11.4% ($5,980)

Bonds: 0%
Cash: 4.7% ($2,450)

Target Allocation (Your Goals):
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Stocks: 80%
- Tech: 50%
- Other Sectors: 15%
- Broad Market: 15%

Bonds: 15%
Cash: 5%

Allocation Drift:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Stocks: +15.3% over target ⚠️
Tech: +25.6% over target 🚨 CRITICAL
Bonds: -15% under target ⚠️
Cash: -0.3% under target ✓ OK

Sector Breakdown vs Targets:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Tech (Actual vs Target):
- Actual: 75.6%
- Target: 50%
- Drift: +25.6% 🚨

This is a MAJOR DRIFT.
Action required: Trim tech by 25.6%

Individual Position Drift:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

AAPL:
- Actual: 29.0%
- Target: 20% max single stock
- Drift: +9.0% ⚠️

NVDA:
- Actual: 23.8%
- Target: 20% max single stock
- Drift: +3.8% ⚠️

MSFT:
- Actual: 16.8%
- Target: <20% ✓

VOO:
- Actual: 11.4%
- Target: 15%
- Drift: -3.6% (UNDER) → Buy more ✓

Rebalancing Needed:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Priority: HIGH 🚨

Actions Required:
1. Trim AAPL by $4,700 (29% → 20%)
2. Trim NVDA by $2,000 (23.8% → 20%)
3. Add VOO by $1,900 (11.4% → 15%)
4. Add BND (bonds) by $7,850 (0% → 15%)

Total: Sell $6,700, Buy $9,750
(Net new capital needed: $3,050 or redirect proceeds)

Timeline: Next 2-4 weeks
Wait for strength in tech to trim.

If you don't rebalance:
- Risk concentration increases
- Volatility increases
- Tail risk increases
- Sleep quality decreases

Target vs Actual Heatmap:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🟩 = Within 5% of target (OK)
🟨 = 5-10% drift (Monitor)
🟧 = 10-15% drift (Consider rebalancing)
🟥 = 15%+ drift (Rebalance now)

Asset Class:
Stocks:  🟧 +15.3% over
Bonds:   🟥 -15% under
Cash:    🟩 -0.3%

Sectors:
Tech:    🟥 +25.6% over (CRITICAL)
Cons:    🟩 -7% under
Broad:   🟩 -3.6% under

Individual Positions:
AAPL:    🟧 +9% over
NVDA:    🟩 +3.8% over
MSFT:    🟩 within target
VOO:     🟩 -3.6% under
TSLA:    🟩 within target
AMD:     🟩 within target

Overall Risk: HIGH 🟥
Action: Rebalance within 30 days

Analyze my portfolio risk. What's my beta,
volatility, and maximum drawdown potential?

⚠️ Portfolio Risk Assessment

Risk Metrics:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Portfolio Beta: 1.42
- 42% more volatile than market
- If SPY drops 10%, you drop ~14.2%
- High risk, high reward profile

Volatility (Std Dev):
- Daily: 1.8%
- Monthly: 8.2%
- Annualized: 28.4% (High!)

For context:
- SPY volatility: ~18%
- You're 58% more volatile than market

Correlation to Market:
- SPY: 0.92 (very high)
- QQQ: 0.95 (extremely high)
- Move with tech/market heavily

Sector Concentration Risk:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🚨 CRITICAL RISK ALERT:
75.6% in one sector (Technology)

Historical Sector Crashes:
- Tech Bubble (2000-2002): -78%
- Financial Crisis (2007-2009): -89% (Financials)
- COVID Crash (2020): -34% (Travel/Leisure)

If tech corrects 30%:
Your portfolio: -23% (75.6% × 30%)

This is your BIGGEST RISK.

Correlation Matrix:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

All tech stocks move together:
AAPL-NVDA: 0.75
AAPL-MSFT: 0.82
NVDA-AMD: 0.92 (almost identical!)

Not truly diversified.
All drop when tech drops.

Maximum Drawdown Potential:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Stress Test Scenarios:

Mild Correction (-10% SPY):
Your Portfolio: -14.2% ($7,400 loss)

Moderate Correction (-20% SPY):
Your Portfolio: -28.4% ($14,800 loss)

Bear Market (-30% SPY):
Your Portfolio: -42.6% ($22,300 loss)

Severe Crisis (-40% SPY):
Your Portfolio: -56.8% ($29,800 loss)

Can you handle these losses?
- Emotionally?
- Financially?
- Without panic selling?

If NO to any: Reduce risk now.

Value at Risk (VaR):
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

95% confidence:
- Worst monthly loss: -12%
- Worst quarterly loss: -24%
- Worst annual loss: -35%

There's a 5% chance you lose more than this.

Risk-Adjusted Return:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Sharpe Ratio: 0.95
- Decent but not great
- Taking a lot of risk for the return

Compare:
- 60/40 portfolio: Sharpe 1.2
- You: Sharpe 0.95

You're taking MORE risk for WORSE
risk-adjusted returns.

Recommendations:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

1. REDUCE TECH to 50% (Critical!)
   - Lowers beta to ~1.15
   - Reduces max drawdown to -35%
   - Improves sleep quality

2. ADD BONDS (15% target)
   - Negative correlation to stocks
   - Cushion in crashes
   - Reduces volatility

3. ADD UNCORRELATED ASSETS
   - International (VEA)
   - REITs
   - Commodities (GLD)
   - Alternatives

4. POSITION SIZE LIMITS
   - Max 20% per stock
   - Max 40% per sector
   - Enforce discipline

Risk Rating: D
Too concentrated, too volatile.
Immediate rebalancing needed.

Ask Sage:
"Review my AAPL position. Should I hold,
trim, or sell?"

AAPL Position Analysis - Monthly Review

Your Position:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Entry: $171.50 (4 months ago)
Current: $176.80
Shares: 86
Value: $15,205
Weight: 29% of portfolio
P/L: +$456 (+3.1%)

Original Thesis (4 months ago):
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
✓ iPhone 15 cycle strength
✓ Services revenue growth
✓ Valuation reasonable (P/E 28)
✓ Buybacks continuing
✓ Dividend aristocrat

Thesis Check (Now):
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

✅ iPhone demand: STILL STRONG
- iPhone 15 sales beat expectations
- China sales recovering
- Thesis intact ✓

✅ Services: ACCELERATING
- Revenue up 16% YoY
- Margins expanding
- Better than expected ✓

⚠️ Valuation: SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
- P/E now 30 (vs 28 at entry)
- Still reasonable but premium
- Thesis slightly weakened

✅ Buybacks: CONTINUING
- $90B annual pace
- EPS benefiting
- Thesis intact ✓

New Developments:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Positive:
✓ Vision Pro launched (new category)
✓ AI features announced (iOS 18)
✓ India production scaling

Negative:
⚠️ DOJ antitrust lawsuit
⚠️ EU regulations (App Store)
⚠️ Mature smartphone market

Overall Thesis: INTACT ✓
Company fundamentals strong.

However:
⚠️ Position size TOO LARGE (29%)

Recommendation:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Action: TRIM (not sell)
- Reduce from 29% → 20%
- Sell ~31 shares (~$5,480)
- Keep 55 shares (~$9,724)

Why:
- Company quality: Still A+
- Thesis: Still valid
- But: Too concentrated

When:
- Next time AAPL up 2-3%
- Use limit order at $180
- Don't wait for "perfect" price

Use proceeds:
- $3,000 → VOO (diversify)
- $2,000 → BND (bonds)
- $480 → Cash

Keep the position:
✅ AAPL is quality
✅ Long-term compounder
✅ Just right-size it
❌ Don't sell entirely

Thesis: HOLD (after trimming)

🚩 Thesis Broken:
- Original reason for buying no longer valid
- Company fundamentals deteriorating
- Competitive position weakening
- Management issues

🚩 Better Opportunity:
- Found much better investment
- Opportunity cost too high
- Capital better deployed elsewhere

🚩 Risk Management:
- Position too large (>20%)
- Sector too concentrated
- Volatility too high for comfort
- Need to derisk portfolio

🚩 Price Action:
- Broke key support levels
- Downtrend established
- Negative divergences
- Technical breakdown

🚩 Valuation:
- Became extremely overvalued
- Bubble territory
- Disconnect from fundamentals
- Better to trim and take gains

Example: TSLA Position
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Red Flag Check:
⚠️ Down -5.2% this month
⚠️ Competition intensifying
⚠️ Margin compression concerns
⚠️ CEO distracted (X, politics)

Action: Monitor closely
Consider exit if breaks $230 support

Based on my review, what should I do
this month? Give me a prioritized action plan.

📋 December Action Plan - Prioritized

PRIORITY 1: Risk Reduction (URGENT)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

⚠️ Your tech concentration is critical (75.6%)
Must reduce to 50% within 30 days.

Specific Actions:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Week 1 (Dec 1-7):
✅ Trim AAPL
   - Sell 31 shares at $180 limit
   - Proceeds: ~$5,580
   - New position: 20% (from 29%)

Week 2 (Dec 8-14):
✅ Trim NVDA
   - Sell 8 shares at $735 limit
   - Proceeds: ~$5,880
   - New position: 20% (from 23.8%)

Total raised: ~$11,460

PRIORITY 2: Diversification (IMPORTANT)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Week 2 (Dec 8-14):
✅ Add VOO (Broad Market)
   - Buy $5,000
   - New position: 20% (from 11.4%)
   - Improves diversification

Week 3 (Dec 15-21):
✅ Add BND (Bonds)
   - Buy $6,000
   - New position: 11.4% (from 0%)
   - Reduces portfolio volatility

Remaining: $460 → Keep as cash

PRIORITY 3: Monitoring (ONGOING)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Throughout December:
⚠️ Watch TSLA position
   - Stop loss: $230
   - Exit if breaks support
   - Reasses thesis

✅ Track allocation drift
   - Weekly check
   - Ensure staying on target
   - Don't let tech creep back up

PRIORITY 4: Research (OPTIONAL)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Weekend of Dec 7-8:
- Research healthcare sector
  (Considering adding XLV for diversification)
- Review Q4 earnings calendar
- Update 2025 investment plan

PRIORITY 5: Year-End Tasks (TAX)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Week 4 (Dec 22-31):
✅ Tax-loss harvesting
   - TSLA position down -5.2%
   - Sell before Dec 31 if still down
   - Harvest loss to offset gains

✅ Rebalance in taxable vs IRA
   - Minimize tax impact
   - Optimize account location

✅ Charitable donations
   - Donate appreciated shares
   - Tax deduction + avoid capital gains

Execution Rules:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

✅ Use limit orders (not market)
✅ Sell into strength (when up)
✅ Buy on weakness (when down)
✅ Don't try to be perfect
✅ Execute the plan systematically
❌ Don't second-guess mid-plan
❌ Don't let emotions override
❌ Don't wait for "perfect" prices

Success Criteria:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

By Dec 31:
✓ Tech allocation: 50% (from 75.6%)
✓ Bond allocation: 11-15% (from 0%)
✓ VOO allocation: 20% (from 11.4%)
✓ Max single stock: 20% (from 29%)
✓ Portfolio beta: <1.25 (from 1.42)

If achieved: Portfolio risk normalized ✓

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
MONTHLY REVIEW - November 2024
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Performance Summary:
- Month: +4.9%
- YTD: +18.5%
- vs SPY: +1.7% outperformance ✓

Top Insights:
1. Tech concentration at critical level (75.6%)
2. NVDA and AAPL positions too large
3. No bond allocation = too much risk
4. Need to rebalance urgently

Best Decision This Month:
- Stayed disciplined, didn't chase momentum
- Let winners run (NVDA +12.5%)

Worst Decision This Month:
- Didn't trim NVDA earlier when flagged last month
- Procrastinated on rebalancing

What I Learned:
- Letting winners run is good, but watch position size
- Monthly reviews catch problems before they're huge
- Rebalancing is not optional—it's risk management

Goals for Next Month:
1. Execute rebalancing plan (trim AAPL, NVDA)
2. Add diversification (VOO, BND)
3. Get portfolio risk back to normal
4. Sleep better at night

Emotional Check:
- Feeling: Anxious about concentration
- Confidence: 7/10 (high but aware of risks)
- Discipline: 8/10 (following plan)

Action Items:
✅ Week 1: Trim AAPL
✅ Week 2: Trim NVDA, add VOO
✅ Week 3: Add BND
⏸️ Week 4: Monitor and adjust

Next Review: December 7, 2024
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

What drove my performance this month?
Break down returns by position and sector.

Performance Attribution - November

Total Return: +4.9% ($2,450)

By Position:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
NVDA: +2.4% contribution ($1,200)
AAPL: +1.2% contribution ($600)
MSFT: +0.9% contribution ($450)
VOO: +0.3% contribution ($150)
AMD: +0.3% contribution ($150)
TSLA: -0.2% contribution (-$100)

Top Driver: NVDA (49% of total return)
Drag: TSLA (offset gains)

By Sector:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Technology: +4.5% ($2,250)
Broad Market: +0.3% ($150)
Consumer: -0.2% ($-100)

If tech was flat:
Your return would've been: +0.4%

Insight: Extremely dependent on tech.
Diversification would smooth returns.

What's my tax impact from potential
rebalancing trades?

Tax Impact Analysis - Proposed Trades

Proposed Rebalancing:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

SELL:
- AAPL: 31 shares at $180
  Cost basis: $171.50
  Gain: $263.50
  Tax (24%): $63.24 (short-term)

- NVDA: 8 shares at $735
  Cost basis: $585
  Gain: $1,200
  Tax (15%): $180 (long-term)

Total Tax Impact: $243.24
Net Proceeds After Tax: $11,217

BUY:
- VOO: $5,000 (no tax)
- BND: $6,000 (no tax)

Net Capital Deployed: $11,000
Remaining Cash: $217

Tax Optimization:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

⚠️ AAPL short-term gain (24% tax)
Better: Hold 1 more month → long-term (15%)
Savings: $47

✅ NVDA long-term already (15% tax)
Can sell now without penalty

Alternative Strategy:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
- Trim NVDA now (long-term)
- Wait 1 month on AAPL (convert to long-term)
- Save $47 in taxes

Or:
- Harvest TSLA loss (-$270) to offset gains
- Reduces tax impact to near $0

How do I know when rebalancing is urgent vs optional?

What metrics should I track monthly vs quarterly?

How do I balance portfolio optimization with tax efficiency?